Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Hall of Fame 2012 Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC) Future start Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC) ::I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :::I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC) :Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC ::We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC) :Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) :I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC) :Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC) :Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC) ::La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC) And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC) I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC) Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC) Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC) :One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ::That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC) ::Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC) :::People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC) It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC) 1st CSU Forecast Here it is! Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC) 2nd CSU Forecast It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC) Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC) A link is here. --AndrewTalk To Me 01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC) Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC) They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC) There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC) Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. AndrewTalk To Me 22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC) July AOI: Northern Leeward Islands I'm not sure why they tagged this, but I'm guessing these are the remnants of 97L that are showing up with 0% on the TWO. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 17:45, July 4, 2012 (UTC) Not looking too likely to develop, unless shear lessens over the next day or two. Emily's 6th anniversary comes in 8 days. Don't know if Ernesto will come before that. Ryan1000 18:10, July 4, 2012 (UTC) Agree with you Ryan the wave near the cape verde island has more oppurtunity than this and Cobra strike I think that the remanents of 97L already pass the Eastern Carribean I think they are near the western Carribean.Allanjeffs 18:19, July 4, 2012 (UTC) I doubt this will become tropical or subtropical. AndrewTalk To Me 19:07, July 4, 2012 (UTC) This is not the Remnants of 97L, it is a brand new wave that passed through the islands. 01:09, July 5, 2012 (UTC) BTW, left the above post. AndrewTalk To Me 02:57, July 5, 2012 (UTC) :::I think the next system will likely form in the Central Atlantic. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 03:46, July 5, :::2012(UTC) :::In a while it will. But not now. EPac is the only basin that's (really) alive right now. WPac may get a storm or two soon, but nothing strong. Ryan1000 05:17, July 5, 2012 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Sorry for the errors I am making in the page anyways we have invest 91L probably won`t develop but something to look at.Allanjeffs 18:45, July 17, 2012 (UTC) :This might have a chance to form.--Cyclone10 19:37, July 17, 2012 (UTC) :::Never mind. It's gone.Cyclone10 20:42, July 18, 2012 (UTC) AOI:Florida Straits AOI at 10% sandwiched between Cuba and Florida. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 15:08, July 22, 2012 (UTC) Now near 0%. Nothing likely to come here, while 90E is up to 90%. Ryan1000 13:31, July 23, 2012 (UTC) 98L.INVEST AOI:ENE of Bermuda 10% atm. Not too likely to develop. Ryan1000 12:22, July 24, 2012 (UTC) 98L.INVEST I disagree it has a shot at becoming Ernesto and is now invest 98L.Allanjeffs 17:45, July 24, 2012 (UTC) 40% may become Ernesto .Allanjeffs 18:04, July 24, 2012 (UTC) :It has an eye feature now, apparently. It looks very similar to the beginnings of Chris in terms of looks. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 19:19, July 24, 2012 (UTC) :Any intensity estimates? 20:15, July 24, 2012 (UTC) : :: Grr....the NHC hasn't updated yet! This system looks impressive on satellite too. The system is beginning to spin rapidly and a very small "eye-like" feature is visible. This should rather be at very high chance of development or is already TD five or Ernesto. STO12 (talk) 22:49, July 24, 2012 (UTC) :::@ 184 it currently has winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1007 mbar. Supportstorm (talk) 22:57, July 24, 2012 (UTC) :::::It doesn't have much time left. Maybe a day or so until it turns extratropical. I'm still not 100% convinced this will become Ernesto, but we'll see. Ryan1000 12:08, July 25, 2012 (UTC) :::::::Down to 20%. Now then, you were saying? Ryan1000 12:32, July 25, 2012 (UTC) :98L is about to hit waters as cold as 50 degrees Fahrenheit. It really has no chance now and the winds are now below TS force. Supportstorm (talk) 13:29, July 25, 2012 (UTC) :::I knew it wouldn't develop; Ernesto will have to wait 'till August. Ryan1000 14:50, July 25, 2012 (UTC) :::I am almost sure this will be reclassified to an unnamed tropical storm in post analysis just wait and see it has convection it has persist for 12 hours and it has 50mph winds.Allanjeffs 21:30, July 25, 2012 (UTC) ::::I also think this will be upgraded into a tropical cyclone in post analysis. Many people tend to say storms like this and 92L don't become classified as tropical cyclones due to their short persistence of convection, but 98L has lasted for a long while. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 22:03, July 25, 2012 (UTC) ::::::I'd give this a 60% chance of a post season upgrade, but as I said earlier, I'm not 100% convinced this had been Ernesto. I have limited hopes on 92L being upgraded, and I'd give Beryl a 50-60% chance of being upgraded to a hurricane. However, as of now, if I could make any post-season upgrade, I would upgrade this to tropical storm 5. However, none of Beryl, 92L, and 98L are certain to be upgraded. NHC always goes conservative...We'll have to wait and see what they say in post-season. Ryan1000 00:01, July 26, 2012 (UTC) ::::::they upgrade the unnamed tc in 2011 they can upgrade this one.Allanjeffs 18:43, July 29, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::I guess the reason NHC didn't upgrade it was it had no threat to land. They probrably didn't upgrade it because they didn't think it was worth the trouble to do so. It wasn't gonna hit anyone anyways. I'm convinced it could have been named, but I'm not going to say it's certain. As I said above, we'll have to wait and see what NHC says in post-season. We can't be certain of anything yet. Ryan1000 23:10, July 29, 2012 (UTC) 99L.INVEST : this one is at 20% and looks very promising I say that this could be Ernesto at the near future we need to pay close attention too.Allanjeffs 14:12, July 30, 2012 (UTC) ::I'm not totally sure if this will develop, but if it does I'm thinking it will move into the southern Caribbean and strengthen. The HPC keeps a high pressure center near the west coast of Florida so I'm sure that it will track either into Central America or make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The wave before is kind of impressive, but I think the low after this one will have the highest likelihood of becoming something. Keeping a close eye on this because I'm spending a week in Galveston for vacation next week. Supportstorm (talk) 10:38, July 30, 2012 (UTC) :::The models have a good spread on this one. One idea is that the storm will head toward the southern parts of the Caribbean, where it will likely be torn apart my the impressive shear and tradewinds and potentially re-develop in the Gulf. Then there's another idea that it'll head more north, into the Virgin Islands. The latter idea has more strength to it. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:50, July 30, 2012 (UTC) :::::SHIPS sees a hurricane in the long run...worth watching, but i'm not convinced it will explode in the long run. Wind shear is not favorable in the Caribbean, and neither is it where it is right now. I think it will likely become something in the GOM in the long run, but not now. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Sometimes we see storms blow up in late July/early August (a great example being Allen, but the Caribbean was really lucky from him). We'll have to wait and see. GFS takes this running straightforward through the Caribbean, but not as a well-organized storm. The ECMWF (euro) model doesn't really do much at all with this. Ryan1000 18:09, July 30, 2012 (UTC) New Hurricane Wiki Main Page I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go: Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here. Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it. Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : I like the new homepage.Cyclone10 00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: This new homepage is truly awesome! AndrewTalk To Me 11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::: One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::::: Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: *Alberto - 0% - No. *Beryl - 20% - Wasn't that much damage. *Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it. *Debby - 25% - Wasn't as bad as I expected. Cyclone10 23:01, July 25, 2012 (UTC) :If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC) Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC) I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC) Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. Darren23 | 01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that , meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC) I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC) ::I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. Darren23 | 15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::::I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC) My predictions: #Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely. #Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement. #Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished. #Debby - 20% - Loads of flooding in Florida. AndrewTalk To Me 16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC) : We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC) ::: I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. 'Ryan1000''' 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC) ::: It's a little to early to do retirements, the next chance for me to post mine will be when a big hurricane is threatening a land mass, Debby came close, but it just decided to be picked up by the trough. 18:03, July 3, 2012 (UTC)